A necessary change of direction for the blog this week. 

An eerie commute, a returnee from Italy, preparing for self-isolation - and the challenge of creating football content when there’s no football.

https://blackpooljane.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/the-corona-diaries-week-1/

there are big, big problems coming.....


Coronavirus UK: ‘8 million Britons to be hospitalised’- secret Government document claims

The document, seen by the Guardian, is a briefing for senior NHS officials and also reveals UK officials believe the deadly virus could last until Spring 2021. It states as many as 80 percent of Britons could become infected with the coronavirus, with as many as 7.9million requiring hospitalisation. The dossier states: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9m people) may require hospitalisation.”


 https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1255634/coronavirus-uk-public-health-england-uk-cases-nhs-covid-19-latest


Spain has TOTALLY shut down; prohibited even to go for a walk or to see a friend. Army on the streets in force.........

My honest prediction is that eventually we could have between 70-80% of the UK infected (as above) - there's no reason why not. Herd immunity may push the numbers down but not until 60% are infected. There's about 68 million of us. The death rate is 2-3% let's be conservative and put it at 2%. That's 1.36 million deaths! Sobering.

You can also expect about 15% require hospitalisation (I agree above). That's 10.2 million.
The NHS won't cope.

The 1918 flu pandemic took 2 years to die down (and 50 million people died Worldwide). I think it will be quicker today due to more people being on the earth making contact easier and travel. The world-wide spread is much more for corona virus after 3 months than it was for the 1918 flu. My guess it will be a year at least till we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

As for treatments - well they may be too late to have any impact.

It's not a pretty scenario and I hope I'm wrong, but what is for sure is that it's going to get very messy very soon. People need to take this very very seriously and at the moment there's a lot of denial in the communities and that includes Government.

I can see some logic in the current strategy. It's a bit like controlling a dam with a big crack in it. Let the water out too quickly and you won't be able to control the outcome. Don't do anything and there will be a catastrophic event. Do it slowly and give yourself time to fix the problem. The numbers right now I'm sure are two orders of magnitude lower than reality. The growth is exponential. Not closing schools, not cancelling big events, not persuading people to stay at home will push us to a spike that the NHS can't cope with. I think we need to get people off the streets now.

You're probably thinking I'm crazy - I hope I am.